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Will 2006 be a repeat of 2004 in gay-marriage ballot items?ASK THIS | March 61, 2006In 2004, voters in 11 states passed bans on same sex marriages and helped re-elect George W. Bush. In November, voters in some states will decide whether to amend their state constitutions to prevent such unions. Reporters may want to focus on what effect that might have on control of the House and Senate and perhaps some governorships. By Alex Kingsbury Q. What effect will state-level gay marriage ballot initiatives have on voter turnout? Q. Will "moral values" ballot items drive people to the polls as they did in 2004? Q. Who is supporting gay marriage ballot initiatives and why? Q. Which tight political races might be affected by having gay marriage items on the ballot? In the 2004 elections, social conservatives proved a reliable and significant voting block. Some 26.5 million evangelical voters cast ballots then, overwhelmingly in support of President Bush. One of the chief motivating factors behind getting those conservatives to the polls, experts have suggested, was the presence of gay-marriage questions on the ballot. In that election, which came on the heels of a court decision in Massachusetts to legalize gay marriage in November 2003, voters in eleven states passed laws banning gay marriage. In all, 13 states adopted bans on same sex unions that year. While the debate over the right to homosexual unions continues in courtrooms and legislatures around the country, the issue could again prove influential in the 2006 election. Voters in Alabama, Virginia, South Carolina, South Dakota and Tennessee will all weigh in on whether to amend their state constitutions to ban same-sex marriage. Arizona, Illinois, Idaho, Colorado and Wisconsin may include a ballot question as well. Suits seeking rights for same sex couples are pending in lower courts in California, Connecticut, Maryland, Iowa, and New York. The Supreme Court of New Jersey will hear a case on the constitutionality of gay marriage this month. And a ruling from the Supreme Court of Washington is expected any day, deciding whether to uphold two lower court rulings in favor of legalizing same sex marriage in the state. It is the potential change to marriage in some states that has primarily fueled the current push for constitutional amendments. Anti-gay marriage activists contend that the amendments are needed to prevent same-sex couples from other states –like Massachusetts – from attempting to seek marriage benefits in other states. Legislatures sometimes punt on divisive social issues, preferring to let courts rule on the issues first. But not always. In Maryland, a lower court ruling in favor of same sex marriage is currently on appeal. If the state's highest court decides to hear the case, however, Democrats fear a decision upholding the lower court ruling could push up voter turnout for Republicans in the next election. This month, Democrats in the state's House of Delegates killed a proposed constitutional amendment, offered by Republicans, which would ban gay marriage and appear on the November ballot.
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