Explore Harvard's Nieman network Nieman Fellowships Nieman Lab Nieman Reports Nieman Storyboard
A Libyan rebel fires a rocket-propelled grenade in Western Libya. (AP)

How long can NATO keep going in Libya? (And other questions)

ASK THIS | July 189, 2011

As Washington debates war powers, important unanswered questions keep mounting regarding the fate of Libya, writes Mideast expert Wayne White.


By Wayne White
WEWfox50@att.net

While political debate still roils over the legality of the American role in Libya, other questions have grown more pressing. Those questions include whether the European side of the NATO operation can be sustained and whether the Libyan opposition truly has the ability to achieve their goal of taking down the regime of Muammar Qadhafi & Co.
 
These issues are critical for those favoring U.S. participation in NATO operations as well as those opposed.
 
Here in the U.S., legalities alone probably will not determine the outcome of the debate (with manipulation of the of the 90-day restriction in the 1973 War Powers Resolution by other administrations already a legacy).  And President Obama’s recent 30-page report to Congress, arguing that the resolution does not apply, appears to have changed few minds. Political realities involving widening war weariness, fiscal fright, the extent of the president’s determination, and the ongoing generalized political sparring between the White House and the Congress are more likely to resolve—or leave unresolved—the question of continued U.S. participation.
 
Vexing, in an overarching sense, is why so many of the same politicians calling for an end to the relatively miniscule U.S. role in Libya (in which the tip of the military spear has long been non-U.S.) are the very same ones pressing for the U.S. to remain far longer amidst the vastly more costly Afghanistan venture and to further prolong our presence on the ground in Iraq (where we also continue to lose people and spend lots more than we probably ever will on Libya).
 
Meanwhile, the staying power of some NATO states in continuing to support the conflict in Libya seems to be buckling.  There is Italy, where Prime Minister Berlusconi publicly voiced his opposition on July 7, and then other cases like Norway in which shortages of military hardware—even basic munitions--are placing considerable stresses on small militaries.  With Washington clearly not in a position to escalate its role to compensate, can the already limited NATO effort go the distance?
 
With stresses inside NATO clearly a challenge, even more questions have been raised about the intensity of NATO air strikes against targets in Tripoli.  Some could be explained as being aimed at the regime’s military command and control network, but repeated strikes against targets associated with Qadhafi (and France’s recent air drops of arms to Libyan rebels) do raise questions about whether they reflect greater urgency on the part of the alliance to bring the crisis to a head more rapidly.  In fact, despite denials, the intense Tripoli attacks may well represent frantic attempts to score a coup de main by removing the Libyan leader sooner rather than later.
 
Paramount, however, is whether the combined Libyan opposition on the ground can wrest control of the country from the forces of the regime anytime soon.
 
Rebels fighting in western Libya—dangerously close to Qadhafi’s center of gravity in Tripoli—have shown surprising boldness and staying power, even in the face of considerable isolation, practically no training, and painful shortages of arms and ammunition. By contrast, opposition armed elements in the east, with all the benefits of ready access to the outside world, a large base, much more in the way of munitions, outside training, and with Qadhafi’s forces operating nearly 600 miles from Tripoli, have been unable to gain any ground for many weeks.  Additionally, unlike their compatriots in the west, they appear unwilling to absorb the heavy loses inevitable when fighting from a disadvantage to sustain any meaningful advance.
 
And, with all these issues cluttering the political and military landscape, a key bottom line that was the subject of considerable debate in the early weeks of the crisis has been somewhat neglected of late:  If the Qadhafis are ousted, wither Libya?  Militant Islamist elements that once resisted the regime so fiercely in eastern Libya over a decade ago do not appear to be a particularly powerful element in the opposition there now, but their true strength remains unknown.
 
And if the opposition in the more heavily populated west continues to make progress in tackling the regime, while rebel efforts in the east continue to falter, regionalism could become more marked in a post-Qadhafi scenario—with the western opposition demanding a dominant voice in determining the country’s future.
 
All things considered, however, there is legitimate concern that it still could be quite some time before the world will be confronted with those post-Qadhafi scenarios.   
 

 



miss
Posted by muffet
07/189/2011, 05:28 PM

i didnt read the article cuz i think i know the answer to the question-How long can NATO keep going in Libya?
the answer is NATO can keep going as long as we have bombs and they have blood.


US Army Veteran
Posted by Carl Rising-Moore
07/189/2011, 10:20 PM

It seems that a post Libyan War will necessarily involve a Libyan Government/Rebel/Islamic Theocracy diplomatic solution.

As the head of the Chinese government recently stated in London, the solution is diplomacy among the Libyan people.

If there is an invasion by NATO/Rebel forces into Tripoli, there will be a blood bath. 2,000,000 automatic weapons have been distributed to the Libyan people that are arming checkpoints throughout every neighborhood in Tripoli. Women and men are now armed and waiting for the next level of a NATO attack. From the beginning, the question was never about a humanitarian mission. The mission was a bold attempt by the West to overthrow the Libyan government, install a US Military Afrocom base and a compliant leadership that ensures the major oil companies access to some of the world's finest oil and the largest deposits in Africa.

Libya, which has enjoyed universal health care, free education up to the Phd. level, a secular society that guaranteed religious freedom and a form of participatory democracy that dates back thousands of years, is not about to go silently into the night.

Libya has for years been the major financier of other African nation's infrastructure. The Libyan government decided to help Africa become economically and culturally self sustaining. Libya financed the ANC which helped end the Apartheid South African governemnt. It was Libya that supplied $300,000,000 to launch the first African satalite which saves the African continent $500.000.000 per year in communications infrastructure.

Libya has no debt, has 214 tons of gold in it's possession, the people had the highest per capita income of any African nation with the longest life expectancy in the region.

The vast majority of Libyan's understand that life under the old King was brutal. And they also understand that a King- in- waiting is in London just champing on the bit to become another puppet of the West once again. The Sha - Iranian CIA coup?

Libyan society is not perfect, but the solution does not include the mission creep that now is aimed at the death of the Libyan leaders.

The African Union's Roadmap to Peace was rejected out of hand by NATO and the rebel forces, but now the coalition is ending with the Arab League, Italian President and the majority of the American People saying; "STOP THE BOMBING OF LIBYA NOW".

Follow the African Roadmap to Peace and stop the bombing of innocent people in Tripoli from 30,000 feet. CEASEF


US Army Veteran
Posted by Carl Rising-Moore
07/189/2011, 10:24 PM

It seems that a post Libyan War will necessarily involve a Libyan Government/Rebel/Islamic Theocracy diplomatic solution.

As the head of the Chinese government recently stated in London, the solution is diplomacy among the Libyan people.

If there is an invasion by NATO/Rebel forces into Tripoli, there will be a blood bath. 2,000,000 automatic weapons have been distributed to the Libyan people that are arming checkpoints throughout every neighborhood in Tripoli. Women and men are now armed and waiting for the next level of a NATO attack. From the beginning, the question was never about a humanitarian mission. The mission was a bold attempt by the West to overthrow the Libyan government, install a US Military Afrocom base and a compliant leadership that ensures the major oil companies access to some of the world's finest oil and the largest deposits in Africa.

Libya, which has enjoyed universal health care, free education up to the Phd. level, a secular society that guaranteed religious freedom and a form of participatory democracy that dates back thousands of years, is not about to go silently into the night.

Libya has for years been the major financier of other African nation's infrastructure. The Libyan government decided to help Africa become economically and culturally self sustaining. Libya financed the ANC which helped end the Apartheid South African governemnt. It was Libya that supplied $300,000,000 to launch the first African satalite which saves the African continent $500.000.000 per year in communications infrastructure.

Libya has no debt, has 214 tons of gold in it's possession, the people had the highest per capita income of any African nation with the longest life expectancy in the region.

The vast majority of Libyan's understand that life under the old King was brutal. And they also understand that a King- in- waiting is in London just champing on the bit to become another puppet of the West once again. The Sha - Iranian CIA coup?

Libyan society is not perfect, but the solution does not include the mission creep that now is aimed at the death of the Libyan leaders.

The African Union's Roadmap to Peace was rejected out of hand by NATO and the rebel forces, but now the coalition is ending with the Arab League, Italian President and the majority of the American People saying; "STOP THE BOMBING OF LIBYA NOW".

Follow the African Roadmap to Peace and stop the bombing of innocent people in Tripoli from 30,000 feet.




The NiemanWatchdog.org website is no longer being updated. Watchdog stories have a new home in Nieman Reports.